Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 8 as NDP Slip

July 20, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding an 8-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 43%, followed by the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Green Party at 2%, the People's Party at 2%, and Other parties at 1%.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 37%, the Conservatives are at 30%, the NDP is at 10%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens and PPC are at 1% each, Other parties are at 0%, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from July 5 to July 18, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead has widened from 6 points last week to 8 points this week. The Liberals are up two points, the Conservatives are unchanged, and the NDP is down two. That is the main movement in this week's tracker: the Liberal vote is a little firmer, while the NDP has slipped back."

"We have been here before. An 8-point Liberal lead is not a runaway, but it is a more comfortable position than last week. The Conservatives are still in the mid-30s, and they remain competitive, but they did not build on last week's tightening. Most of the movement is coming from a dip in NDP support within the margin of error."

"Carney's approval is 57%, with 35% disapproving and 8% not sure. Approval is up one point from last week and disapproval is down one. This is not a new high, but it is another week where Carney remains clearly above water."

"Poilievre's numbers have moved the wrong way after last week's improvement. Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, 50% have an unfavourable view, 8% are not sure, and 5% are not familiar with him. His favourable number is down three points and his unfavourable number is up two, so last week's better personal numbers have not held."

"Avi Lewis is still a divided figure. Twenty-eight per cent have a favourable view of him, 28% have an unfavourable view, 24% are not sure, and 20% are not familiar with him. His favourable number is unchanged, his unfavourable number is up one, and the share who are not familiar with him is down one."

"Lewis continues to look strongest with younger voters and in British Columbia. Among voters aged 18 to 34, his favourable rating is 44%. In BC, it is 42%, which is his strongest regional number. But nationally, greater familiarity is not breaking cleanly in his favour."

"British Columbia remains one of the more interesting regions. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 42%, the Conservatives are at 34%, and the NDP is at 22%. The NDP remains much stronger in BC than nationally, but they are still in third, while the Liberals have opened some space over the Conservatives there this week."

"The age split is also worth watching. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives are at 33%, and the NDP is at 24%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 54% to 33%. The Liberals still have a strong advantage with older voters, but the youngest age group remains much more competitive."

"Overall, this is a stable Liberal lead with a bit more room than last week. The Conservatives are close enough to keep the race competitive, but Poilievre's personal numbers moved backward and the party did not gain on vote intention. For now, the Liberals remain ahead and Carney remains the better-rated national leader."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.