Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 17 as Conservatives Fall Back Below 30%

September 28, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 17 points among decided and leaning voters, as Conservative support falls back below 30%.

The Liberals are at 46%, up one point from last week, while the Conservatives are at 29%, down two. The NDP holds at 15%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Greens and the People's Party at 2% each, and other parties at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from September 13 to September 26, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Conservatives are back below 30%, and the gap has grown from 12 points two weeks ago to 14 last week and 17 today. Their September recovery has not held. The Liberals have added a point this week, but the larger change is on the Conservative side."

"These are modest weekly movements. Each release combines two weeks of interviews, with the older week dropping out and a new week coming in. Consecutive releases overlap, so they are not independent snapshots. What matters politically is that the Conservatives are again below 30% rather than building on their earlier improvement."

"The widening Liberal lead is not accompanied by rising approval for Carney. His approval is 64%, down from 65% last week and 66% two weeks ago. Twenty-nine per cent disapprove and 7% are unsure. He remains in a strong position, but this week's party numbers should not be mistaken for a fresh surge in his personal popularity."

"Poilievre presents the reverse picture: his favourable rating has edged up from 35% to 36%, even as Conservative voting intention has slipped. Fifty-one per cent still view him unfavourably. A small improvement in how Canadians see the leader has not translated into an improvement for his party."

"The challenge is particularly clear in Quebec. The Liberals have 46% among decided and leaning voters, the Bloc has 26%, and the Conservatives have 15%. Only 17% of Quebec respondents view Poilievre favourably, while 64% view him unfavourably. That leaves the Conservatives a long way from challenging the Liberal lead in the province."

"In Ontario, the Liberals lead 49% to 31%. In British Columbia, they lead 45% to 28%, with the NDP at 22%. Alberta remains much stronger ground for the Conservatives, who lead 49% to 31%. Regional samples are smaller and more variable, but the national deficit is not something the Conservatives can address through Alberta alone."

"The NDP has held onto last week's 15%, but its national number conceals a much more competitive race among younger voters. Among decided and leaning voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals have 36%, the Conservatives 26%, and the NDP 25%. The NDP and Conservatives are effectively level with that age group, even though they are 14 points apart nationally."

"Lewis is at 31% favourable and 30% unfavourable, with 27% unsure and 12% unfamiliar with him. His favourable rating reaches 42% among those aged 18 to 34, compared with 22% among those 65 and older. The NDP has an audience among younger Canadians, but broadening that appeal is still the work ahead."

"The contrast at the other end of the age range is substantial. Among decided and leaning voters 65 and older, the Liberals have 58%, the Conservatives 25%, and the NDP 8%. The Liberals are competing in a three-party race among younger voters while holding a much more commanding position among seniors."

"For the Conservatives, the immediate task is to turn modest improvements in perceptions of their leader into support for the party. For the NDP, it is to build beyond the voters already most receptive to Lewis. Neither has yet reduced the substantial advantage the Liberals hold nationally."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.