Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead, 38% to 37%
January 5 (Toronto, ON) – The federal political landscape has tightened into a dead heat to start the new year, according to the latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies. The survey shows a significant narrowing of the gap between the two leading parties, the race is a literal tie among decided and leaning voters, with the Liberals at 38% and the Conservatives at 37%.
Conducted from December 26, 2025 to January 3, 2026 using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the rolling survey polled 1,000 Canadians, with the sample split evenly between two weeks (500 per week). The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"We’re heading into 2026 with a genuinely competitive race. The Liberals held a comfortable lead through much of last year, but the Conservatives have steadily closed the gap and right now we’re essentially looking at a national tie.”
“After the two main parties, the NDP is at 12% among decided voters, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 7%, the Green Party at 3%, and the People’s Party at 1%. And with 16% of the country still undecided, there’s plenty of room for movement.”
“Prime Minister Mark Carney still has majority approval, but the numbers have cooled from where they peaked in mid-2025. Today, 55% approve of the job he’s doing, 39% disapprove, and 6% are unsure. His strongest approval is in Atlantic Canada (69%) and Ontario (59%), while the toughest numbers are in Alberta (50% disapprove) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (46% disapprove). In the latter two provinces, Carney is now registering a net disapproval (-3 in Alberta, -1 in Manitoba/Saskatchewan) for the first time.”
“That headline tie is hiding some pretty sharp regional and demographic divides. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by four points among decided voters (42% to 38%), and they continue to lead in Quebec at 37%, ahead of the Bloc at 31%.”
“Conservative support is still dominant in Alberta (64%) and strong across the Prairies (46%), with a narrow edge in British Columbia (39%). And demographically, the Conservatives are ahead among voters under 50, including a 12-point advantage among 35–49, while the Liberals continue to hold a solid 10-point lead among Canadians 65 and over."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.