Federal Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 31%; Carney Approval at 65%

November 9, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies National Tracker puts the Liberals at 44%, the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 14% among decided and leaning voters. The Liberal lead is 13 points, down from 15 last week, while 65% approve of Prime Minister Mark Carney's performance.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from October 25 to November 7, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted by age, gender and region to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The ballot has returned to where it was two weeks ago: 44% Liberal, 31% Conservative and 14% NDP. Last week's widening has reversed, but that is not the same as a new Conservative breakthrough. The Liberals have been at 44% or 45% in each of the past five releases."

"Carney's approval has edged up a point to 65%, with disapproval unchanged at 28%. The Conservatives have gained a point on the ballot without gaining ground in how Canadians view their leader. Poilievre's favourable rating is down another point to 32%."

"The gender divide is much larger on the ballot than it is in Carney's approval. Sixty-eight per cent of men approve of him, compared with 66% of women. But the Liberals lead the Conservatives by just three points among men, 40% to 37%, compared with 23 points among women, 49% to 26%. Carney is getting good marks from both groups. His party is not getting the same electoral advantage from both."

"Poilievre has lost some of the personal gains he made in October. His favourable rating has gone from 35% to 33% to 32% over the past three releases, while his unfavourable rating has risen from 52% to 53% to 54%."

"Alberta is a useful reminder that voters do not have to dislike one leader to like another. Sixty per cent approve of Carney, and 60% have a favourable view of Poilievre. On the ballot, the Conservatives lead 47% to 40%, the same seven-point margin as last week."

"The Liberals remain well ahead in the two largest provinces. They lead the Conservatives 47% to 34% in Ontario. In Quebec, they have 46%, followed by the Bloc at 24% and the Conservatives at 18%. The Conservative lead in Alberta has not been matched by anything close to that position in Ontario or Quebec."

"The NDP has now recorded 14% in four consecutive releases, but it is much more competitive in British Columbia. There, it has 26%, behind the Liberals at 37% and the Conservatives at 30%. Lewis has a favourable rating of 46% in BC, compared with 34% nationally. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 45% view him favourably, while 21% would vote NDP. His personal appeal is not translating fully into party support in either group."

"Nationally, Lewis's favourable rating is down two points from last week, while his unfavourable rating is up one to 29%. Another 28% are unsure and 8% are unfamiliar with him. The Bloc has 5% nationally, the Greens 3%, and the People's Party and other parties 2% each."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.