Dead Heat as Mississauga Race Concludes

June 7, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Carolyn Parrish clinging onto a one point lead over councillors Dipika Damerla and Alvin Tedjo.

Conducted from June 4-5, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 914 Mississauga residents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.24%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"What started as a sleepy race is finishing as a nail biter," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Carolyn Parrish is leading with 24% - but just by one point. Meanwhile Dipika Damerla and Alvin Tedjo are tied at 23% each. We just don't know how this race is going to end."

"With the advance polls concluded, we asked voters if they voted in advance. Among those who say they did - and we should note that social desirability bias means sometimes people claim to have voted when they have not, Parrish is at 28% with Alvin Tedjo second at 23%. It may be that Carolyn Parrish wins the election by winning the advance polls and losing on election day itself - we saw this happen in Toronto with Olivia Chow.

"Among seniors its councillor Stephen Dasko who is surprising right now with 25% support. Carolyn Parrish is holding steady with seniors up 2 points (from 32% to 34%). So there's certainly an opportunity for Dasko to outperform polling since seniors are such reliable voters. That being said, he is presently 4th and at 18% among those who are decided."

"Alvin Tedjo has steadily gained these past few weeks and is now tied for second for the first time in our polling. A large chunk of Tedjo's support is coming from the youngest voters - those 18-34, so his team will need to work hard to deliver those voters to the polls."

"The election is going to come down to turnout. Damerla and Tedjo will be hoping for a large turnout that dilutes the advance poll votes already cast. Parrish will be hoping to maintain her lead until the last vote is cast, even if it's razor thin. If she's been able to build up a bit of a lead in the advance she just has to hang on," concluded Valentin

Among All Voters
20% - Carolyn Parrish (-5)
19% - Dipika Damerla (-1)
19% - Alvin Tedjo (+3)
15% - Stephen Dasko (+5)
4% - Brian Crombie (-4)
6% - Someone Else (no change)
18% Undecided (+2)

Decided Voters Only
24% - Carolyn Parrish (-5)
23% - Dipika Damerla (-1)
23% - Alvin Tedjo (+4)
18% - Stephen Dasko (+6)
5% - Brian Crombie (-4)
7% - Someone Else (no change)

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