Chow Steady As She Goes, While Rest of Field Has Minor Ups, Downs

June 20, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Olivia Chow's support holding steady at 30% among decided voters with less than a week to go.

Conducted from June 17-18, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,152 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll stands at +/- 2.89%, 19 times out of 20.

"Chow is the clear favourite for Monday's vote as this poll - and every other one, has her with a double digit lead heading into Monday's vote," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

"As usual candidates have ups and downs. The trend this election has been for Saunders to hold steady at second and his support is unchanged, trailing Chow by 14 points at 16%. Saunder is followed by Matlow (13%) and Bailao (12%). Bailao is up one point this week while Matlow's bump appears to be short lived as he is down 3 points compared to the last survey."

"The undecided rate is now at 12%, down one point, and we would expect in our final survey it holds steady or ticks down slightly."

"It's always important to remember that polls are weighted. Liaison polls have been weighted to the census and voting eligibility."

"But with a low turnout election the electorate may not be representative of the population."

"Data studied by Liaison from the advanced polls shows North York voting significantly lower than its eligible voter population. Downtown overperformed while Scarborough and Etobicoke voted roughly in line with eligible voter numbers."

"All that is to say that the makeup of the electorate will determine how accurate polls are at predicting the results of the election."

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among all voters (including undecided) compared to the last poll:

26% Chow (-2)
14% Saunders (no change)
12% Undecided (-1)
11% Matlow (-3)
11% Bailao (+2)
9% Furey (+2)
7% Someone Else (+2)
6% Hunter (-1)
3% Bradford (-1)
0% Perruzza (no change)

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among Decided Voters Only (compared to the last poll):

30% Chow (no change)
16% Saunders (no change)
13% Matlow (-3)
12% Bailao (+1)
10% Furey (+2)
8% Someone Else (+3)
7% Hunter (-1)
4% Bradford (-1)
0% Perruzza (no change)

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Toronto Poll, June 20 by Liaison Strategies on Scribd