Posted by David Valentin
— 1 min read
Photo by Denis Umpleby / Unsplash

June 24, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Olivia Chow's support holding steady at 31% with just days to go. While Ana Bailao is now in second with 17% (+5), Chow maintains a 14 point lead.

Conducted from June 22-23, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,086 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll stands at +/- 2.97%, 19 times out of 20.

"Bailao is trending upwards and it's possible her momentum could extend to the rest of the weekend," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

"But with Chow also ticking slightly upward it's also possible that votes coalescing around Bailao and Saunders could drive more voters to Chow."

"Only 9% of voters say they're undecided now (down 3 points) but support for candidates is not locked in. Voters can change their mind at the last minute as they consider the 102 options in front of them."

"The biggest mystery at this point is what will voter turnout be? Increased turnout in the advance polls could mean a larger turnout on election day - but we have also seen increased advance vote turnout lead to lower overall turnout in provincial and federal elections."

"One thing is for sure: the next mayor will inherit significant budgetary challenges and will face difficulty implementing their agenda. The story at City Hall will not end on Monday."

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among all voters (including undecided) compared to the last poll:

28% Chow (+2)
15% Bailao (+4)
14% Saunders (no change)
10% Furey (+1)
9% Matlow (-2)
9% Undecided (-3)
5% Hunter (-1)
5% Someone Else (-2)
4% Bradford (+1)
0% Perruzza (no change)

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among Decided Voters Only (compared to the last poll):

31% Chow (+1)
12% Bailao (+5)
16% Saunders (no change)
11% Furey (+1)
10% Matlow (-3)
6% Hunter (-1)
5% Someone Else (-2)
4% Bradford (no change)
0% Perruzza (no change)


Toronto Poll, June 24 by Liaison Strategies on Scribd