Carney’s Lead Holds: Liberals at 44%, Conservatives at 35%, Dead Heat Among Parents
September 4, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada finds Mark Carney's Liberals with a strong 9 point national lead over the Conservative Party - though Conservatives draw even among parents with a narrow one point lead.
Conducted from August 25-27, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election and ranked second in accuracy in the 2025 Canadian federal election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Mark Carney's Liberals continue to post strong numbers as they head into the fall. While the budget may yet upped their strong national lead, or solidify it, they have a strong 9-point lead over the Conservatives.
With support for the Liberals at 47% in both Ontario and Quebec, these numbers would most likely result in a majority government if an election were held today. The Conservatives do best in Alberta (53%) and the Prairies (48%). The NDP are doing best in British Columbia (16%) but are anemic everywhere else.
One bright spot for the Conservatives however is they have a narrow one point lead among parents, 38% to 37% over the Liberals. This is offset, however, by the Liberals posting a 13-point lead in childless households.
We are continuing to track Mark Carney's approval rating and he is down one point of approval and up one point of disapproval compared to our last fielding. This is statistically insignificant but something to keep an eye on particularly post-budget.
These numbers were part of our Back to School survey which you can read here. Soon it will be Back to Parliament and the Prime Minister will once again be facing Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. While the Liberals have strong majority numbers, they are in a minority government and as we have seen recently things can change very quickly.
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Detailed Poll Report:
For voter intention please see pages 13 onwards.
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.