Budget Lockup: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 38%

November 4 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Liaison Strategies poll taken on the eve of the federal budget finds Canadians split on whether the deficit will personally affect them, with 48% saying it would and 44% saying it wouldn't. The poll, conducted for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) also finds the federal Liberals lead by 4 over the Conservatives, 42% to 38%.

Conducted from November 1 to 3, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 1,000 Canadians. The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval rating sits at 62%, with 32% disapproving. Approval is particularly strong among women (65%) and Canadians aged 65 and over (64%). Despite concern about the economy, Canadians continue to see Mark Carney as a steady hand.

Meanwhile, if an election were held today, the Liberals would lead by four points. Chances are they would win the election but a majority would be up in the air. The Liberals maintain a strong lead in Quebec (+20) but their lead in Ontario has narrowed over recent months (+5). That being said, they are still ahead in Atlantic Canada (+22) and British Columbia (+5). As we saw from our earlier polling of major Ontario cities, the Conservatives are leading in Brampton and are competitive in Kitchener. As we learned from the last election, it would be incorrect to assume Ontario’s overall number translates evenly across its subregions.

Cautious Outlook on the Budget

To get a sense of how Canadians view this year’s federal budget, Liaison is conducting a before-and-after survey - and here’s the before.

Asked about the upcoming budget, 57% of Canadians expect the deficit to be much larger, with an additional 21% saying it will be somewhat larger.

When asked more generally about government spending, six in ten feel Ottawa is spending excessively, with 21% saying it is spending the right amount.

Does the deficit matter? For now, Canadians are split but only 14% say they will be strongly affected by it with an equal 14% saying it doesn't matter to them at all.

They also mostly think the spending will benefit them - eventually. 46% say they are confident it will, while 40% are not.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, those 18-34 are the least likely to be optimistic or cautiously hopeful. 18-34 scores highest on being pessimistic, worried & angry and frustrated.

Meanwhile, Canadians do not have clear views of the budget yet though some have early impressions.

We also asked Canadians about the opposition. For now, most believe they are mostly playing politics - likely a reflection of recent election speculation and the perception that opposition parties are more focused on triggering an election than on offering alternatives.

We'll be fielding again to see how the numbers move after the budget is tabled and communicated. This will be the first chance for Canadians to see the Prime Minister's spending priorities and we'll be keeping a close eye on his personal approval rating alongside other budget metrics.

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Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.