Bailao Surging, But Chow Remains in Lead

June 25, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Ana Bailao continuing to pick up steam after John Tory's endorsement - but it may be too little too late.

Conducted from June 24-25, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,008 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll stands at +/- 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.

"Bailao is continuing to pick up support but Election Day is tomorrow," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

"Even if this trend continues into Election Day it may be too little too late. The advanced polls are already in and many mail-in ballots have already been cast. Tory's endorsement may simply have come too late."

"The undecided rate is down to 8% - the majority of voters know who they're going with at this point. But last minute changes of heart at the ballot box could make a difference."

"With 102 campaigns on the ballot - and a fair number of them organized and ready to get out the vote tomorrow, will turnout go up? The people of Toronto were always going to determine Toronto's winner, but which corners of the city decide to show up and vote will determine the outcome and the margins. Already we've seen that North York's advance poll turnout was low compared to the rest of the city and that Downtown's turnout was high."

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among all voters (including undecided) compared to the last poll:

30% Chow (+2)
20% Bailao (+5)
14% Saunders (no change)
9% Furey (-1)
8% Undecided (-1)
7% Matlow (-2)
6% Someone Else (+1)
5% Hunter (-1)
2% Bradford (-2)
0% Perruzza (no change)

Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among Decided Voters Only (compared to the last poll):

32% Chow (+1)
22% Bailao (+5)
15% Saunders (-1)
10% Furey (-1)
8% Matlow (-2)
6% Someone Else (+1)
5% Hunter (-1)
2% Bradford (-2)
0% Perruzza (no change)

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Toronto Poll, June 25 by Liaison Strategies on Scribd