June 13, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Olivia Chow maintaining a strong lead over Mark Saunders in second place.
Liaison also asked voters how certain they were to vote for their preferred candidate - 31% of decided voters say they won't be changing their mind, with 56% of Chow supporters saying the same. Furey (47% strong) and Saunders (45% strong) followed. The least committed voters belong to Matlow (15% strong), Hunter (20% strong) and Bailao (22% strong).
Conducted from June 10-11, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,197 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll stands at +/- 2.83%, 19 times out of 20.
"Olivia Chow is down just a smidge this week," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "She is down one point among decided voters, while Mark Saunders is up one point. That means her 21 point lead has shrunk to a 19 point lead - as far as problems go this is not a bad one to have."
"The undecided rate has continued to fall this week and is now down to 18%. Olivia Chow has actually grown support among all voters (up one) but is down a point among decided voters because that pool has grown larger. We saw this phenomenon before in the campaign - as voters make up their minds, candidates have to grow their support just to maintain their numbers in the decided category."
"This week we decided to revisit issue questions from earlier on. Interestingly, more Torontonians say the city is headed in the right direction now (32%) than in April (21%)."
"Toronto voters are also about as optimistic about their personal finances now as they were in April (40% vs 40%)."
"But on the question of the city budget - in April we asked what was better: raising taxes or cutting spending, to address the budget shortfall. Support for raising taxes is up four points to 30% but support for cutting spending has grown from 21% to 28%. A plurality of Toronto voters are undecided on the matter (42%).
Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among all voters (including undecided) compared to last week:
28% Chow (+1)
18% Undecided (-3)
12% Saunders (+1)
10% Matlow (+1)
8% Bailao (+1)
7% Hunter (-2)
7% Furey (+2)
5% Bradford (-1)
4% Someone Else (-2)
0% Perruzza (no change)
Key Findings from the Liaison Survey among Decided Voters Only (compared to last week):
34% Chow (-1)
15% Saunders (+1)
12% Matlow (+1)
10% Bailao (+1)
9% Hunter (-2)
9% Furey (+3)
6% Bradford (-1)
5% Someone Else (-2)
0% Perruzza (no change)