Trudeau Set for Seat Losses in Toronto

October 15, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) the Trudeau Liberals would suffer seat losses in Toronto if an election were held today - winning as few as 3-6 seats.

Conducted from October 7-8, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 848 Toronto residents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"Down 17 points from the 2021 Election result in the City of Toronto - and just one point ahead of the Conservatives, the Trudeau Liberals are staring down seat losses," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

In the City of Toronto, the poll shows the Liberals at 35%, the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 25%, with the Greens and People's Party of Canada tied at 3% a piece.

"The regional numbers show that many races will go down to the wire, but some won't be close at all. In the last election the Liberals won every seat in the City of Toronto. The Liberals are doing best in North York where they are tied with the Conservatives at 40%, and Scarborough where they are tied with the Conservatives at 32% with the NDP at 31%. But in downtown Toronto the NDP now lead 36% to 33% and in Etobicoke the Conservatives lead by 10%. All of it adds up to seat losses right across the city," continued Valentin.

"Provincially, Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals are in the lead with 35% - the same level of support as the federal liberals, holding a 4 point lead over the Doug Ford Conservatives with the Ontario NDP at 29%."

"While the provincial liberals are in first, we've seen a drop in support in their Toronto numbers recently and this continues that trend. The Ontario NDP are leading in downtown Toronto with 39% which bodes well for re-electing the majority of their incumbents. The PCs are performing best in Etobicoke at 45% with a 19 point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals meanwhile, are leading in North York at 40% where 32% support the Ford Conservatives. Scarborough is a close race with 36% supporting the PCs and 33% supporting the Liberals."

"These numbers would see the Liberals making some pick-ups in the north end of the city but they would not be adding too many seats to their total given the regional distribution of their vote."

"Lastly, we took our regular check-in on Olivia Chow's approval rating. It is holding steady with 58% of Torontonians saying they approve of her performance as mayor compared to 32% who say they disapprove."

"This gives the mayor a +26 net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) and continues the trend from the summer. In most recent months her approval has come in at 58% with her negatives fluctuating by a few points in each direction," concluded Valentin.

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