Trudeau, Ford Bleed Toronto Support; Chow Honeymoon Continues

October 12, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows the Trudeau Liberals and Ford PCs taking a hit in the City of Toronto while Olivia Chow continues her honeymoon as mayor.

Conducted from October 3-4, 2023, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 817 Toronto residents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.43%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison is a member of the Canadian Insights Research Council (CRIC).

"Justin Trudeau is facing challenging numbers in the City of Toronto where last election his party won every seat," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.

"The Trudeau Liberals notched 52% of the Toronto vote in the last election. That is down to 40% now and the Liberals are trailing the Tories in Etobicoke (40% to 35%) while their support in Scarborough is down 25 points and has given way to a three way race with the NDP and Conservatives."

"Premier Doug Ford is also facing difficult numbers in the city and it's important to note the poll was conducted before news of the RCMP Greenbelt investigation became public. The Ford PCs are leading in Etobicoke and trailing everywhere else. While the Ontario NDP have grown their support in Scarborough (also a three way race) they are tied with the Ontario Liberals downtown which could result in seat losses. The leaderless Liberals are leading in North York and Scarborough - where they recently won a by-election."

"While the provincial and federal incumbents face difficult headwinds in the city, one incumbent, that being Oliva Chow, continues her honeymoon. Support for Chow is up 2 percent (within the margin of error of the last survey) to 75%. Her support is highest in North York (79%) and lowest in Etobicoke (68%). In August we pegged her support at 73% and wondered if it would be her high water mark - it was not."

"This month we took a look at city support and opposition to renaming Dundas Street. A majority 54%) support renaming the street while 34% aren't sure. Once the cost was given to respondents, an estimated $8.6 million, support dropped and opposition rose significantly. After being told the cost 42% support renaming Dundas while 35% oppose it," concluded Valentin.

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Full report:

Toronto Poll, October 2023 by Liaison Strategies on Scribd