Toronto: Chow leads Tory, 42% to 36%
October 27, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Toronto mayor Olivia Chow taking the lead in a potential re-match with former Toronto mayor John Tory. The survey is one of ten city polls released today - other cities include Hamilton, Ottawa, Windsor, Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan, Kitchener, London and Markham. A full list of polls can be found here.
Conducted from October 22-23, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,000 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
If an election were held today Olivia Chow would win a re-match with former mayor John Tory. Chow leads with 42% (+3 from July) compared to Tory's 36% (-1). Councillor Brad Bradford meanwhile is up 4% to 12%. Only 10% of Torontonians say they would be undecided.
It's only a 8 point lead for Chow but it's an improvement on her previous 4 point lead. Chow performs best in Scarborough and Downtown Toronto while Tory gets his best numbers from Etobicoke.
When it comes to her approval, this month Chow is at a 52% approval and 41% disapproval. This puts her 7th most popular on the list of Mayors we tested (or 4th most unpopular).
Liaison continues to track the mayor's approval rate monthly. Chow saw a slight uptick in support (+2) from September.
Toronto's top issue has gone from affordable housing to crime. The flip comes during a period of sustained crime coverage focusing on bail reform and sentencing. It's also important to note in recent months Toronto's condo market has cooled and rents have eased.
We also asked Torontonians if the city was moving in the right or wrong direction, wrong direction (48%) is now polling out in front of right direction (45%) compared to the last fielding.
Federally, the Liberals continue to clean up, notching 51% support compared to 29% for the Federal Conservatives.
It's important to note this survey tested generic party support and not local candidates names, but either way these numbers show us the federal Liberals are performing very well in the city.
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Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.