Toronto: Chow 46%, Bradford 35%; Voters Split on Island Airport

April 17, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey show Mayor Olivia Chow holding a 11-point lead among decided voters while Councillor Brad Bradford sees a significant surge in support, particularly among younger demographics.

If a mayoral election were held today among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow would lead with 46% support, followed by Brad Bradford at 35% and Anthony Furey at 11%.

The survey also found support split on allowing jets to fly out of Billy Bishop Airport.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Torontonians from April 12 to April 13, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The survey is a collaboration with the Toronto Star.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

"Mayor Chow continues to dominate in the Downtown core and among older residents, but Brad Bradford has effectively tied her among voters aged 18-34 and holds a lead in Etobicoke. The city is also perfectly split on its trajectory, with an equal number of residents believing Toronto is moving in the right versus the wrong direction."

Mayoral Approval and City Direction

• Approval Rating: Mayor Olivia Chow’s job approval stands at 56%, with 40% disapproving and 4% unsure.
• Regional Divide: Her approval is highest in Downtown (67%) and lowest in Etobicoke (32%).
• City Trajectory: Residents are evenly divided on the direction of the city, with 48% saying it is moving in the Right Direction and 48% saying Wrong Direction. This represents a shift from earlier in the year when Right Direction held a narrow lead.

"Toronto is split right down the middle on bringing jets to Billy Bishop, with 49% opposed and 46% in favour. That divide isn’t random, it’s driven by geography and age. Downtown residents are firmly against it, while younger voters (18–34) lean the other way. And where the airport actually impacts people, opposition hardens."

"Support is also pretty soft. The minute you start talking about losing parkland or harbour access, majorities flip against expansion. But if you frame it around economic upside or more business destinations, support jumps back up into the high 50s and low 60s. In other words, people like the idea, until there’s a tradeoff."

"What’s not up for debate is process. Two-thirds of the city thinks Toronto needs a say before anything happens. Most voters won’t decide an election on this alone, but there’s more upside for candidates opposing expansion than supporting it. And with 72% saying this matters for the future of the waterfront, this isn’t going away anytime soon."

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.