Toronto: Chow 40%, Tory 33%, Bradford 18%
February 12, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey finds Mayor Olivia Chow’s approval rating at 55% (up 1 point) as Toronto heads into a municipal election year and gears up for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. On the ballot test, Chow sits at 40% (up 1), leading former mayor John Tory at 33% (down 2) by seven points, with City Councillor Brad Bradford at 18%.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Torontonians from January 31 to February 2, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
Mayoral Approval and the Road to 2026
Mayor Olivia Chow’s approval rating currently stands at 55%, with 38% of Torontonians disapproving of her performance. While her approval is highest in Downtown Toronto (60%), she faces significant opposition in Etobicoke, where 59% of residents disapprove.
Looking ahead to the upcoming municipal election, Chow leads a hypothetical field of candidates. Among decided voters:
- Olivia Chow: 40%
- John Tory: 33%
- Brad Bradford: 18%
- Anthony Furey: 5%
“Mayor Chow continues to hold a solid lead, though a potential return by John Tory remains a significant factor for a third of the electorate,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"When we started charting potential matchups the Mayor was at 39% - she's now at 40%, virtually unchanged. Most of the movement we've seen so far has come from Councillor Brad Bradford who is up another 2 points since our last fielding - within the margin of error, but it's positive movement and he is up 10 points from last July."
The 2026 City Budget and Property Taxes
Public opinion is nearly evenly split on the proposed 2.2% property tax increase for 2026, with 48% supporting the measure and 47% opposing it. Support is strongest among Downtown residents (60%) and weakest in Etobicoke (13% support vs. 79% oppose).
When asked about the necessity of the increase:
- 37% believe the 2.2% increase is reasonable to protect city services.
- 22% feel any increase is too much given current affordability pressures.
- 13% argue the increase should be higher to expand services.
A majority of Torontonians (65%) believe the proposed rate was influenced, at least somewhat, by the fact that 2026 is an election year.
"The Mayor's approval rating has suffered during past budget seasons but not this time. Though there is some cynicism that the election is influencing the budget, there is still a plurality of support, albeit narrowly, for the tax increase," continued Valentin.
Top Priorities and City Direction
Torontonians are closely divided on the city’s trajectory, with 49% believing Toronto is moving in the right direction and 44% stating it is on the wrong track - but this is a shift from negative to positive compared to previous polling.
The top budget priorities for residents this year are:
- Housing Affordability: 20%
- Road Repair and Traffic Congestion: 19%
- Public Safety: 16%
- TTC Reliability and Service: 16%
Traffic and the FIFA World Cup
Despite the appointment of a new Traffic Czar to manage road congestion, public confidence is low. Only 12% of respondents have a great deal of confidence in the role, while 51% reported having very little or no confidence at all that the position will lead to noticeable improvements.
Meanwhile, excitement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is tempered. While 38% of residents are excited and see it as a major benefit, 29% remain indifferent, and 24% are concerned that disruptions and costs will outweigh the benefits. In the interest of full disclosure, this pollster notes he previously wrote an op-ed about the cost of the World Cup.
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Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.