Saskatoon: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 39%
March 31, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds a competitive race in Saskatoon with the Conservatives at 43% to the Liberals 39% among decided and leaning voters.
The survey, conducted from March 29 to March 30, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 603 Canadian voters in Saskatoon. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3.99%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
Why Poll Saskatoon Anyway?
"Our daily tracking survey has been collecting 500 responses per day," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "To date, that means we’ve gathered over 10,000 interviews. While the national tracking survey is a valuable tool, it does have limitations—one being that subregional sample sizes are often too small to draw definitive conclusions about shifts in support. However, when you aggregate all of the tracking data over 20 days into one large dataset, you can start to analyze subregions with much more clarity."
"Saskatoon emerged as a subregion where the Liberals are outperforming expectations, largely at the NDP's expense. This is especially notable given recent redistribution, which placed three ridings entirely within the city limits—making it a compelling reason to conduct a dedicated poll of the area."
"As the NDP continues to decline nationally, there may be other subregions where the full impact on the vote isn’t immediately clear without further polling."
"That said, the Conservatives still hold the lead in Saskatoon with 43% support, while the Liberals sit at 39%. Despite struggling nationally at 6-8% in our surveys, the NDP manages to reach double digits here at 10%."
"When examining leader favourability, it's clear why the Liberals are performing well: Mark Carney. City-wide, Carney holds a 49% favourability rating, compared to 36% for Poilievre and 26% for Singh. Notably, Carney is the only leader with a positive net favourability (+16)."
"Mr. Carney enjoys the strongest support among his own party supporters, with 87% of Liberals viewing him favourably. In comparison, 69% of Conservatives have a favourable opinion of Mr. Poilievre, while Mr. Singh holds a 67% favourability rating among NDP supporters."
"Before the Liberals start celebrating, there are a couple of important caveats to this survey. First, this is a national poll fielded in Saskatoon - we did not test local candidate names. The Conservatives have incumbents in Saskatoon who may outperform their leader on the generic ballot."
"The survey also shows that 2% of respondents would support an 'other' candidate. However, in the 2021 election, only one Saskatoon riding had a candidate outside of the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Greens, and PPC—and that candidate received just 1% of the vote. Given how close the race is, where that ends up could make an impact."
"Lastly, it's important to note that polls, including this one, do not account for campaign organization. If the Conservatives and NDP have strong ground games while the Liberals do not, we would expect them to outperform their polling numbers. A key question remains: what infrastructure and resources do the Liberals have in Saskatoon? With four weeks to go until Election Day, there’s still time to build one, but it's an open question."
"Of the three Saskatoon seats, Saskatoon West appears to be the most competitive based on past results. If the Liberals manage to secure even one seat in the city, it would be a significant achievement."
"That said, we’re still a long way from Election Day. If Liberal support declines nationally in the coming weeks, ridings like those in Saskatoon could quickly become out of reach," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.