PCs Lead in Nova Scotia, But NDP Leads in Halifax

Toronto, ON (January 9, 2026) – A new Liaison Strategies survey of Nova Scotia voters finds Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives holding a 19-point lead on ballot support and strong numbers on approval, healthcare, and the province’s relationship with Ottawa but the province-wide numbers mask an NDP lead in Halifax where the opposition party leads 40% to 31%.

If a provincial election were held today, 50% of voters would support the PC Party, compared with 31% for the NDP and 18% for the Liberals province-wide.

“Provincewide, the PCs are still very much in front. But the story underneath the topline is that Halifax is moving in a different direction,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “If you are the governing party, leading 65% outside Halifax is an asset but trailing in Halifax is a warning sign.”

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 800 Nova Scotians from January 4-6, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

Halifax Shows Sharp Divide

The survey shows a sharp regional divide in how Nova Scotians are feeling about the province and the Premier’s performance.

• In Halifax, 57% say Nova Scotia is heading in the wrong direction (32% right direction).
• In the rest of the province, 62% say Nova Scotia is heading in the right direction (27% wrong direction).

Premier Tim Houston’s approval is also split: Halifax is net negative (41% approve, 54% disapprove), while the rest of Nova Scotia is strongly positive (67% approve, 24% disapprove).

“We are seeing a very pronounced divide as the government is not evenly popular,” said Valentin. “Outside Halifax, voters are giving the PCs the benefit of the doubt. In Halifax, there is a much tougher read of where things are going.”

Housing is the clearest opening for the NDP inside Halifax
On the question of who Nova Scotians trust most to handle housing affordability and supply, the province is divided, and Halifax stands out.

• Halifax: Claudia Chender (NDP) 41%, Tim Houston (PC) 26%, Iain Rankin (Liberal) 13%, Not sure 20%
• Rest of Nova Scotia: Tim Houston (PC) 40%, Claudia Chender (NDP) 29%, Iain Rankin (Liberal) 12%, Not sure 20%

“On the housing file the NDP has a real advantage,” said Valentin. “The PCs are performing well on Healthcare where we don't see a regional divide, and the Liberals are outperforming on who would do best on a provincial/federal relationship, though still trailing the PCs," he concluded.

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.