PCs 42%, Liberals 32% as Campaign Enters Final Stretch
February 24, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Doug Ford's PCs leading the Ontario Liberals by 10 points - the same lead the PCs held prior to the leader's debate.
The survey, conducted February 23rd, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, polled 805 Ontario voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.45%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
“With just a few days to go the PCs are in the driver's seat but the Liberals continue to lead in Toronto,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
“The Ontario NDP are steady at 18% province-wide and are set for seat losses. Margins of error are greater for subsamples but their Toronto number is at 13%, and their 905 score is at just 9%. Meanwhile they are more or less tied with the Liberals and PCs in the North and trail badly in every other region outside Hamilton and Niagara.”
“Over the weekend voters had a chance to cast a ballot in the advance polls and all indications point to a significant drop off in participation. The trend has been for more voters to vote in advance each election. This time around, with the number of advance polling dates slashed by 70% it should not come as a surprise that advance voting is down. The question remains if these voters are going to show up on Election Day - but it is difficult to believe turnout will match that of the 2022 election with the advance down significantly.”
“There is also a question of who the composition of the electorate will be in a low turn-out scenario. I don't know that anyone could say today what turnout will total on Thursday.”
“With the election almost wrapped up, the PCs are set to win a majority government with the Liberals forming the official opposition but we will remain in the field to track any late developments,” concluded Valentin.
Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 42% (+1)
Ontario Liberal 32% (+1)
Ontario NDP 18% (No Change)
Ontario Greens 5% (-1)
Other 3% (-1)
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