Ontario vs. Manitoba: Voters Torn Between Protecting Local Jobs and Harming Neighbours
January 27 (Toronto, ON) – A new provincial survey conducted by Liaison Strategies reveals a complex balancing act in public opinion regarding Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s threat to remove Crown Royal from LCBO shelves. While a majority of Ontarians support using the LCBO's market power to defend local jobs, there is significant concern regarding the potential collateral damage to workers in Manitoba.
The survey reveals that 69% of voters believe it is appropriate (26% very, 43% somewhat) for the Premier to use LCBO shelf access to pressure companies in job-related disputes. However, the support comes with a catch: 63% of Ontarians say it is important to avoid harming jobs in provinces like Manitoba, where Crown Royal is distilled.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from January 19 to January 21, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"On the core question, should Ontario use the LCBO as leverage, the public is pretty blunt. 69% say that's appropriate, so Premier Ford has definitely tapped into the right sentiment with that move."
"However, the same voters are also drawing a boundary around how that leverage should be used, There isn’t an appetite for punishing other provinces. Most Ontarians are saying: fight for Ontario jobs while at the same time they want harm to be minimized to the rest of Team Canada."
Key Findings Include:
Priority on Local Jobs: When forced to choose, 48% of Ontarians say the province should prioritize fighting for Ontario jobs even if it risks negative impacts elsewhere in the Canadian economy, while 41% believe the priority should be avoiding harm elsewhere in the Canadian economy even if it limits Ontario's leverage to support jobs.
Regional Divide: Support for prioritizing Ontario jobs is highest in Northern Ontario (58%) and lowest in Toronto (41%).
The Manitoba Factor: 36% of voters say avoiding harm to Manitoba jobs is "very important," with another 27% calling it "somewhat important".
Age Gaps: Support for prioritizing Ontario jobs increases with age, peaking at 51% among those aged 65+.
The LCBO: 69% say it is appropriate for Doug Ford to use LCBO shelf access to pressure companies in job-related disputes (26% very, 43% somewhat). 25% say it is inappropriate.
"The regional numbers tell us more," added Valentin. "In the North where manufacturing and resource jobs are often front-of-mind, there is a stronger mandate for the Premier’s tactics. In Toronto, voters are more split on whether a trade dispute with a sister province is the right way to go."
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Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.