Ontario PCs Lead by 9; 1 in 4 Undecided

January 20, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Doug Ford PCs leading Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals by 9 points while the undecided rate increases.

Conducted from January 15-16, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,197 Ontario voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.83%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

"The Liberals are steadily climbing in public support, now sitting at 32%. This marks a 2-point increase from last week and a 5-point rise since the start of the year," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Interestingly, this growth isn't coming at the expense of the PCs but rather from the smaller parties and the Ontario NDP. Since we began our public Ontario releases in February 2024, this is the first time we've recorded the Ontario Liberals reaching 32%."

The Liberals are leading in Northern Ontario (35% to 30%) and Toronto (42% to 32%), while the PCs maintain strong results across other regions. Notably, the PCs have regained the lead in South Central Ontario with 36%, compared to 33% for the NDP.

"Maintaining 41%—the same level of support they achieved in the last election—the PC vote has not seen much movement, even with significant visibility and attention surrounding Premier Doug Ford," Valentin added.

Meanwhile, the undecided voter rate has risen by 4 points this week. Valentin attributed this shift to potential uncertainty caused by issues like tariffs, early election speculation, and federal leadership dynamics. "This rate is likely to decrease once the campaign officially begins," he said.

"If current trends continue, the Ontario NDP could face serious challenges," Valentin warned. "As the Official Opposition, they've positioned themselves as the primary alternative to the Ford Conservatives. However, a widening gap between second and third place would severely undermine that strategy."

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 41% (+1)
Ontario Liberal 32% (+2)
Ontario NDP 19% (-2)
Ontario Greens 5% (+1)
Other 4% (-2)

-30-

For more information: