Ontario: PCs Lead by 10 as Ontario NDP Squeezed Out
May 14, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds the Ontario PCs leading the Ontario Liberals, 46% to 36%, while the Ontario NDP find themselves squeezed out at 13%
Conducted from May 5-9, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the Liaison poll surveyed 1,000 Ontario voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election. In the most recent federal election, Liaison ranked as the second most accurate polling firm nationally, and was the top performer when factoring in regional results.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
The Ontario PCs are leading province-wide, but the Ontario Liberals hold the advantage in Northern Ontario and the City of Toronto. The PCs hold sizeable leads in southwestern Ontario (55% support), southcentral Ontario (47% support), eastern Ontario (48% support), and the 905 (48% support).
The ONDP sits at 13%, with its strongest support in Northern Ontario (19%) and Toronto (17%). This may reflect federal election momentum—but if it's more than that, it could mark the start of deeper polarization and a shift in Ontario's political landscape.
Despite the PC lead, a majority of Ontarians—55%—believe the province is heading in the wrong direction. Their top concerns are healthcare (31%), cost of living (30%), and relations with the U.S. (19%). Tomorrow’s budget will reveal whether the government is addressing those priorities.
As for the leaders, Doug Ford, Bonnie Crombie, and Marit Stiles all post a net favourability of +3. But Ford remains far better known than Crombie, who in turn is more familiar to voters than Stiles. Green Party leader Mike Schreiner leads with a net +4 but has the lowest name recognition of the group.
Among Decided & Leaning Voters
Ontario PC - 46%
Ontario NDP - 13%
Ontario Liberal - 36%
Ontario Greens - 2%
Other - 3%
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.