Ontario: Liberal Leadership Race is Mostly Unknowns
March 6, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey reveals that while the Progressive Conservatives maintain a narrow lead in voter intent, opposition leaders and potential Liberal leadership candidates are battling significant name-recognition challenges across the province.
"The ballot remains competitive, but the favourability numbers suggest that many voters are still getting to know the alternatives to the current government," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. "Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner are the most established figures, but even they have significant portions of the electorate who are unfamiliar with them".
Liaison was ranked #1 for accuracy in Ontario in 2025, and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from February 20-22, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative stratified sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
| Name | Favourable | Unfavourable | Not Sure | Not Familiar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marit Stiles | 28% | 25% | 18% | 30% |
| Mike Schreiner | 22% | 20% | 20% | 38% |
| Josh Matlow | 18% | 13% | 11% | 59% |
| Nathaniel Erskine-Smith | 7% | 7% | 5% | 81% |
| Mike Crawley | 7% | 4% | 12% | 77% |
| Rob Cerjanec | 1% | 2% | 4% | 93% |
| Lee Fairclough | 1% | 1% | 5% | 93% |
| Vikram Handa | 1% | 1% | 4% | 93% |
| Dylan Marando | 2% | 1% | 4% | 94% |
| Eric Lombardi | 2% | 2% | 3% | 94% |
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
"Marit Stiles, leader of the Ontario NDP, holds the highest favourability rating among the leaders tested in the survey. Twenty-eight percent of Ontarians say they have a favourable view of Stiles, compared to 25% who view her unfavourably. At the same time, 30% of respondents say they are not familiar with her. Her support is strongest among younger voters, where 36% of those aged 18–34 report a favourable impression."
"Green Party leader Mike Schreiner posts a 22% favourability rating, with 20% of respondents holding an unfavourable view of him. However, a significant share of Ontarians remain unfamiliar with the Green leader, with 38% saying they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion."
"Among the potential Ontario Liberal leadership contenders tested, Toronto City Councillor and former mayoral candidate Josh Matlow performs the strongest. Matlow records a 33% favourability rating in the City of Toronto, far higher than his provincial average of 18%. Across Ontario, however, most respondents are still unfamiliar with him, with 59% saying they do not know enough about Matlow to form an opinion."
"Mike Crawley, who announced late last night that he would not seek the leadership, also performed relatively well in the survey compared to other potential candidates. However, that result may be influenced by name recognition tied to the former CBC Queen’s Park correspondent and reporter who shares the same name."
"Former Cabinet Minister Nathaniel Erskine-Smith meanwhile is better known than most of the leadership candidates but has a net approval of zero, with 7% having a favourable opinion and a further 7% having a unfavourable opinion of him."
"Everyone else is effectively unknown. That includes MPPs Rob Cerjanec and Lee Fairclough and potential candidates Eric Lombardi, Dylan Marando and Vikram Handa."
"For the opposition to capitalize on the government's high disapproval ratings, their leaders and potential candidates will need to significantly increase their profile outside of their home bases."
"For the Liberals, their leadership race is just beginning and no candidates have filed the paperwork yet. For the NDP and Greens the problem is a bit more acute and they will need to create opportunities to put their leaders in front of Ontarians."
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Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.