Ontario Election Eve: PCs 43%, Liberals 32%

February 26, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Doug Ford's PCs concluding the election with an 11 point lead over Bonnie Crombie's Ontario Liberals.

The survey, conducted February 26th, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, polled 789 Ontario voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.48%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

“Doug Ford is on track to secure a third majority government,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “The key question now is who will form the official opposition. The Ontario Liberals appear poised to regain official party status, while the Ontario NDP faces the risk of losing it.”

“That being said, we expect voter turnout tomorrow to be lower than in the last election. Advance poll participation saw a significant decline, even steeper than the drop observed in Nova Scotia. However, we've also received reports of over 1,000 voters casting ballots in some ridings at returning offices over the past three days. When turnout hits rock bottom, unexpected outcomes can occur—especially if highly educated voters are casting strategic ballots.”

“Every election brings a few unexpected results, and this one will be no different. We’ll be watching ridings like Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Oakville, Ajax, both Thunder Bay seats, and University—Rosedale closely tomorrow night,” concluded Valentin.

Ontario Numbers (Change from Feb 25)
Ontario PC 43% (-1)
Ontario Liberal 32% (+1)
Ontario NDP 18% (No Change)
Ontario Greens 5% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)

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