NDP Leadership Hopefuls Mostly Unknown, But Lewis, McPherson Make Gains

March 25, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey from Liaison Strategies reveals a shifting landscape in the NDP leadership race, with Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson both making notable gains in favorability over the past year.

The survey, which tracked the favorability of potential and declared candidates, highlights a significant increase in profile for Avi Lewis. Lewis has seen his favorability nearly double, rising from 11% in September 2025 to 20% in March 2026. During the same period, his unfavorability also rose from 8% to 14%, as he became more defined in the minds of voters.

"Avi Lewis has clearly made the biggest splash over the last twelve months," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. "While his unfavorable numbers have ticked up, his favorability has jumped by nine points. He remains the most well-known of the candidates tested, with 50% of Canadians now having an opinion of him".

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from March 9 to March 21, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

Candidate Standings and Trends

• Avi Lewis: Currently holds 20% favorability and 14% unfavorability. His "Not Sure" segment dropped significantly from 31% to 16% as voters formed more concrete opinions.
• Heather McPherson: Has seen a steady rise in support, with favorability growing from 10% to 14% over the past year. Her unfavorability remains very low at 6%, making her one of the better-liked candidates among those familiar with her.
• Rob Ashton: Enters the frame with 13% favorability and only 5% unfavorability. However, he faces a significant name-recognition hurdle, with 72% of Canadians stating they are not familiar with him.
• Tanille Johnston: Remains largely unknown to the national electorate, with 94% of respondents reporting they are not familiar with her. She currently holds 3% favorability.
• Tony McQuail: Holding 5% favorability and only 2% unfavorability, 88% of Canadians are not familiar with McQuail.

"Heather McPherson continues to build a quiet but positive profile," Valentin added. "With a favorability rating that now matches Avi Lewis’s starting point from last year and very low negatives, she has a clear path to growth if she can increase her national name recognition, which currently sits at 33%."

"That being said, many Canadians have never heard of some of the NDP Leadership Candidates with Rob Ashton, Tanille Johnston and Tony McQuail very unknown," concluded Valentin.

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.