National Tracker: Liberals Maintain 4 Point Lead; NDP Dips to 9%
March 20, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows a stable race with Mark Carney's Liberals maintaining their 4 point lead over the Conservatives.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 17 to March 19, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"Today's tracking shows the Liberals holding steady at 40% for the second day in a row, while the Conservatives remain four points behind at 36%. Meanwhile, the NDP’s rough streak continues, hitting a new low of 9%," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"Multiple media outlets confirmed today what many had long suspected—the campaign will officially kick off this Sunday. That said, all parties have effectively been in election mode for days, gearing up for the fight ahead."
"Regionally, not much has changed: the Liberals maintain leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, while they remain second place everywhere else. Their support in Manitoba/Saskatchewan sits at a solid 35%, and they trail the Conservatives by five points in British Columbia. If an election were held today, these numbers would translate to a Liberal majority."
"But the election isn’t today. For Liberals, this is great news—just months ago, they were staring down a catastrophic defeat, potentially winning as few as 30 or 40 seats. By that measure, even securing 100 seats would seem like a win. But that’s not the standard Mr. Carney will be judged by. He’s polling in majority territory, and if he ends up with just 100 seats, Liberals will be furious that he blew it."
"On the flip side, Conservatives can take some comfort in the fact that their numbers are holding steady. For much of last year, the Liberal strategy was to sit back and hope Mr. Poilievre made mistakes or courted controversy. That’s a plan—but not a very good one. The question now is whether Carney’s honeymoon phase will fade in time for Conservatives to take the lead 36-ish days from Sunday. Maybe! But simply waiting for voters to turn on Carney while running attack ads isn’t much of a strategy. The Conservatives still have time to adjust their approach, but no matter what they do they will remain at the mercy of the NDP vote—and, of course, the wildcard factor of the American President."
"The biggest unknown? Turnout. Canadians are feeling more patriotic than ever—will that translate into more of them showing up to vote? Predicting turnout is always risky, but I’d bet it surpasses the 62% we saw in 2021. And higher turnout could throw a wrench into riding projections, making this race even harder to call. Given trends in demographic breakdowns do not automatically assume higher turnout will help the Liberals" concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally. Liaison has demonstrated accurate results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, was the most accurate polling firm of the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.