National Tracker: Liberals Lead By 4, Once Again at 40%
March 24, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows the Liberals expanding their lead to 4 points as they once again hit 40%.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 21 to March 23, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The Liberals had a strong showing in yesterday’s rolling survey, coinciding with the leaders officially kicking off their campaigns in Ottawa and Montreal," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "They've regained a 4-point lead over the Conservatives, hitting 40%—essentially the same numbers we saw from March 17-19."
"Regionally, the picture remains largely unchanged, with the Liberals leading in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario. However, they’ve also pulled ahead—albeit narrowly—in British Columbia. We'll be watching tomorrow’s numbers closely to see if this trend holds."
“With the NDP polling at half of their 2021 vote share, the big question now is whether their incumbents can pull off a last-minute save—much like their Ontario counterparts did in the last provincial election. I’d imagine jumbo ‘re-elect’ stickers are being slapped onto lawn signs as we speak, if they aren’t there already. That said, the Ontario NDP didn’t see their support cut in half—this is a much steeper decline.”
“With 78 seats, Quebec is the second-biggest prize on the electoral map, so all eyes should be on the Bloc Québécois. Blanchet faced some tough questions at his campaign launch, even going as far as calling the Bloc a ‘national party’—despite only running candidates in Quebec. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have room to make gains at the Bloc’s expense, and that could be the difference between a minority and a majority government,” concluded Valentin.
-30-
For more information:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.