National Tracker: Liberals Hit 40%, 4 point lead
March 19, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows Mark Carney's Liberals hitting 40% and growing their lead over the Conservatives to 4 points.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 16 to March 18, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
“The Liberals have reached 40% and extended their lead over the Conservatives to four points in our latest tracking survey,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
“Regional numbers remain challenging for the Tories. While they’ve pulled ahead by five points in British Columbia—some welcome news—it’s overshadowed by their struggles elsewhere. They trail by 10 points in Ontario, sit in third place in Quebec at 25%, and face a potential wipeout in Atlantic Canada, where they lag by 27 points.”
“The NDP holds steady at 10% today—a figure that could translate to zero seats. At these levels, the party would likely lose official party status.”
"As the election nears, questions are emerging about its timing. How long will the campaign last? With Easter and Passover approaching, scheduling advance polls will be a logistical challenge."
"All eyes are now on Mr. Carney to announce when the election will officially begin— but in reality, the campaigns are already well underway," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally. Liaison has demonstrated accurate results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, was the most accurate polling firm of the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.