National Tracker: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 37%
April 13, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 45% (-1) to the Conservatives 37% (-2).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 10 to April 12, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Today’s tracking shows some movement - though maybe not in the way you were hoping or expecting. The Liberals are down a point to 45%, the Conservatives drop two to 37%, while the NDP, Bloc Québécois, PPC, and Greens each pick up a point.
In total, the two main parties have lost three points, while the four smaller parties have gained four. On the surface, that might seem a bit off - but this is the kind of thing that can happen with rounding. It’s not unusual for a poll to add up to 98 - 102%, and today’s total comes in at 101.
The Bloc's bump puts them at 24% in Quebec, tied with the Conservatives, while the Liberals continue to lead comfortably at 41%. These numbers are certainly an improvement for the Bloc - much better than the mid-teens they were polling at just a week ago - but they’re still weak overall. At this level, the Bloc is likely to lose seats to the Liberals, the Conservatives, or both.
The NDP is sitting at 7% today - which, while not great, is at least better than 6%. Regionally, they’re polling as high as 9% in Ontario and the Prairies, but that doesn’t bode well for their incumbents in British Columbia. That said, their numbers in B.C. have bounced around quite a bit in our tracking, so some volatility is to be expected.
Possibly even worse news for the NDP and the Conservatives: a new poll out of Saskatchewan - not conducted by yours truly - was released this morning and appears to confirm our earlier findings in Saskatoon.
The poll comes from Rubicon. While I’m familiar with the company, I don’t recall seeing public polling from them before. That said, since their results line up with what we previously reported (which was ignored or pooh-poohed at the time), I've decided this is a very good survey! (I reserve the right to change my mind at any time).
Of course, it’s always possible that both Saskatoon surveys are off - but if they’re right, they send a strong signal (just as our first Saskatoon poll did) that the NDP’s collapse in support isn’t going to be neat or evenly spread out.
In theory, ridings like Oshawa should be non-starters for the Liberals. But if NDP support in Oshawa drops the same way it seems to be dropping in Saskatoon, suddenly that riding becomes a much more competitive race. Aside from being an interesting development, this would be very bad news for the Conservatives and would make their path to government even more difficult. Modellers may be underestimating how many Conservative seats are presently in danger.
Let’s close by adding the important caveat that the debates could reshape the national landscape - or have little effect at all. If they do have an impact, today’s takeaways will quickly become outdated. There’s still plenty of campaign left, and a lot can happen, but as of right now, with these numbers, the Liberals would likely win a majority government.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.