National Tracker: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 39%
April 12, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 46% (+2) to the Conservatives 39% (no change).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 9 to April 11, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
On one hand, the Conservatives have held steady at 39% - no major missteps, no collapse. On the other hand, after a week of hovering at 7-8%, the NDP have slipped back down to 6%, with most of that support drifting straight into the Liberals’ column.
In many ways, today’s numbers sum up the entire campaign: the Conservatives can do just fine, even hit their marks - but if the NDP keeps bleeding support to the Liberals, it won’t matter. The Liberals will form government anyway.
Another challenge for the Conservatives is the Bloc Québécois, who are sitting at 21% today.
Regionally, the Liberals are leading across the board - except in the Prairies and Alberta. In Ontario, they hold a 12-point lead, which all but guarantees most of the GTA will be painted red. The NDP are performing strongest in British Columbia, where the Liberal lead has fluctuated quite a bit. Today, it's a 6-point edge over the Conservatives, 46% to 40%.
With time slipping away, it’s looking more and more likely that the end result will be a Liberal government - though it would be prudent to guess whether it would be a minority or a majority today. At this point, the debates would need to spark a significant shift for the Liberals to lose their grip on the lead. It’s not impossible - maybe not even improbable - but it’s a lot to ask.
Interestingly, the public’s been told that Mr. Carney’s French is terrible and that he’ll flop in the debates because he’s not an experienced politician. That kind of messaging seems counterproductive - it lowers expectations, which is the last thing you'd want if you're hoping for a knockout blow.
Mr. Poilievre, by contrast, has been gearing up for a moment like this his entire life - starting with Model UN, debating at Speaker’s Corner at the University of Calgary, and honing his rhetoric over years in Parliament. So don’t count him out. If anyone is capable of delivering a breakout debate performance, it’s him.
A strong showing could shift some voters directly from the Liberal column to the Conservatives - but to truly change the game, he’ll also need a bit of luck: namely, a swing of Liberal support back toward the NDP and the Bloc.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.