National Tracker: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 38%
April 4, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 46% (+1) to the Conservatives 38% (+1)
The rolling survey, conducted from April 1 to April 3, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The Liberals are up, but the big story in this survey is the collapse of the Bloc Québécois," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "While their numbers have fluctuated throughout our tracking, today's 17% is the lowest we've recorded all election. If the Bloc remains below 20% in Quebec over the next few days, it will be shocking."
"The Liberals, meanwhile, have hit a new high at 46%. The usual questions arise—are they peaking too soon? Is this momentum sustainable? But with each passing day, we're one step closer to Election Day, leaving them with less time to worry about that."
"The Conservatives have inched up by one point, while the NDP remains stuck at 6%."
"Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate—leading Atlantic Canada with 59%, holding an 18-point advantage in Quebec, a 7-point lead in Ontario, and a 9-point lead in British Columbia. At these levels of support, not only would they secure a majority, but it would also translate into a substantial seat count."
"Last night featured Radio Canada's Cinq chefs, une élection, so we may see some impact from the interviews in the coming days. This week’s discourse has been dominated by tariffs, the stock market, and their effects on investments. If this trend continues, it will be challenging for opposition parties to gain traction. For better or worse, as Prime Minister, Mr. Carney has been the one leading the response to the tariffs, giving him a distinct advantage in the race," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.