National Tracker: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 39%, NDP 7%
April 8, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 45% (no change) to the Conservatives 39% (no change).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 5 to April 7, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
It’s déjà vu in today’s numbers, which are nearly identical to yesterday’s - Liberals maintain a 6-point lead over the Conservatives. Every day the Conservatives fail to chip away at that lead is a missed opportunity, especially as time continues to slip away.
Given the Conservatives' inefficient vote distribution, they likely need at least a 4-point national lead to have a shot at forming government. That means, as of today, they’d need to make up a 10-point gap to get there.
Regionally, the Liberals are still out in front: +13 in Atlantic Canada, +19 in Quebec, +6 in Ontario, and +11 in British Columbia. If the election were held today, these numbers would point to a Liberal majority government.
Yesterday saw a significant loss in market value, and the media narrative has shifted toward growing concerns about a potential recession in both the United States and Canada - Goldman Sachs now pegs the risk at 45%.
As the week unfolds, it’ll be worth watching what stories manage to break through—whether on broadcast TV, TikTok, or other platforms. With the candidate registration deadline now behind us, we’re waiting to see the finalized list of candidates in each riding.
And with no more changes allowed on the ballot, I expect political parties will spend the rest of the week dropping opposition research into the conversation to shape the narrative while they still can. Parties that rushed to nominate candidates at the last minute are especially vulnerable - there’s a higher risk that one or more of those candidates could become liabilities and end up being dropped.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.