National Tracker: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 39%
April 7, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 45% (+1) to the Conservatives 39% (no change).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 4 to April 6, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Today’s numbers have the Liberals up a point to 45%, while the Conservatives hold steady at 39% - their highest showing in the daily tracking so far. The NDP remain at 7%, and the Bloc comes in at 19% in Quebec, once again falling just short of the 20% threshold.
The Liberals held a 4-point lead in Ontario yesterday - that’s grown to 6 points today. They continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia. As for the overall outcome, a Liberal majority was the most likely result yesterday, and that hasn’t changed.
As I write this, the markets haven’t even opened yet, and already things look grim. CNN says Dow futures are tumbling, CTV reports that Asian stocks and oil prices have plunged, and the American President insists tariffs are here to stay until American trade deficits are no more. There are no deals to be made - at least not for now.
Congress could, apparently, scrap all the tariffs tomorrow if it wanted to, but the Speaker says: “People should trust Trump - he built the greatest economy ever last time, and he’ll do it again.”
Some analysts are bracing for a circuit breaker to trip today, Japan’s already hit one, as trillions vanish into thin air.
I bring all this up because this is the chaos the federal parties will be trying to cut through today - and possibly for the rest of the week. Carney, for his part, will be reacting as the Prime Minister, and also as the guy who used to run the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
Anything could happen, so maybe the race will tighten tomorrow. But so far, every time Trump steps into the spotlight, the Liberal numbers have gone up, not down, making this a tough day for the opposition parties to get their message out.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.