National Tracker: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 38%, NDP 8%
April 9, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 45% (no change) to the Conservatives 38% (-1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 6 to April 8, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
The overall race is holding steady, but today I spent most of my time looking at the NDP and Bloc Québécois numbers. For the Bloc, 20% is still a weak showing—but considering they've dipped below that mark on several days recently, it's actually a bit of good news. Especially since tomorrow's tracking will drop one of their rougher days.
As for the NDP, after three straight days stuck at 7%, they're now up to 8%. That’s the first time they’ve hit that mark since March 29 (from the March 26–28 tracking period), and even then, it only lasted a day. Still, a slow climb is better than no movement—or worse, slipping further.
It will take more time to see if these are trends or just temporary noise in the numbers - and we are halfway through the campaign, time is in short supply.
In any case, today’s numbers continue to point toward a Liberal majority government, with the party leading in Atlantic Canada (+22), Quebec (+19), Ontario (+7), and British Columbia (+12). The Liberals are currently polling at 49% in B.C.—a level that feels difficult to sustain, especially with the NDP sitting at 10% in the province.
As of now, we’re still waiting on the finalized candidate list, so no adjustments have been made for any party based on candidate gaps. That said, given how low the PPC and other minor parties are currently polling, any adjustments may end up being minimal.
Lately, I’ve been leaning toward the idea that we won’t see much movement until the debates, but I’m open to being proven wrong by tomorrow’s tracking.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.