National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%
April 11, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (+1) to the Conservatives 39% (-1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 8 to April 10, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:
Yesterday, the race tightened—today, it loosened. The Liberals have gained a point, while the Conservatives have slipped by one. The NDP remains steady at 8%, and the Bloc Québécois is still hovering in the low 20s, sitting at 22% in Quebec today.
Any day can mark the beginning - or the end - of a trend. And sometimes, we’ll see movement that doesn’t quite add up. More often than not, that’s simply the result of our surveys using random probability sampling.
They say slow and steady wins the race, and so far, things are continuing to go well for Mr. Carney. It probably doesn’t hurt that some Conservatives are now accusing Mr. Poilievre of "campaign malpractice."
Regionally, the Liberals hold strong leads in Atlantic Canada (+18), Quebec (+14), Ontario (+11), and British Columbia (+4). I know I’ve said this nearly every day this past week, but with margins like these across those key regions, the numbers continue to point toward a likely Liberal majority government.
Time is running out for the opposition parties - the election is now past the halfway mark. At this stage, the debates represent their best shot at a plot twist. But even a strong performance from Mr. Poilievre would need to significantly damage Mr. Carney’s momentum to prevent him from forming some kind of government.
The Conservatives are in urgent need of a boost in NDP support and for the Bloc to hold back potential Liberal gains in Quebec.
There’s still room for events to shake up the campaign, but that possibility cuts both ways. While something unexpected could benefit Mr. Poilievre, it’s just as likely that such events could end up helping Mr. Carney instead.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.