National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 39%
April 6, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (-2) to the Conservatives 39% (+1).
The rolling survey, conducted from April 3 to April 5, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The race has tightened a bit," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "But one off day for the Liberals doesn’t make a trend—though it could be the start of one."
"The NDP have edged back up to 7%, and while the Bloc Québécois remains under 20% in Quebec, they're now at 19%. That’s still a tough number, but better than 17% - so at least it's a step in the right direction."
"Regionally, the numbers still point to a Liberal majority government, even as their national lead over the Conservatives narrows. The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia - though their margin in Ontario has slipped to just 4 points, which is something to watch closely."
"Tomorrow marks the candidate nomination deadline for Elections Canada, but I wouldn’t expect a complete list right away. For example, in Eglinton–Lawrence -where I live - only one candidate is currently listed."
“I’d expect that in Eglinton–Lawrence we’ll eventually see a full slate of candidates - including from the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, and PPC - who either haven’t filed yet or whose paperwork hasn’t been processed. But in some other ridings, that likely won’t be the case.”
“Elections Canada is set to publish the confirmed list of candidates by April 9. Around that time, we’ll adjust our polling to reflect the actual number of candidates running for the Greens, PPC, and any Independents.”
“We’re heading into week three of this five-week campaign, which means we’re quickly approaching the halfway point,” concluded Valentin. “The debates are just around the corner - and so are the advance polls, which might (or might not!) give us an early glimpse at voter turnout.”
-30-
For more information:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.