National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 38%

April 14, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (-1) to the Conservatives 38% (+1).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 11 to April 13, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

The usual caveat applies to today’s numbers: this could be the start of some tightening - or it could simply be statistical noise. The Liberals have dipped by one point, while the Conservatives have gained one, narrowing the gap from eight points to six.

Even with this slight dip in support, the Liberals would still be on track to form a majority government if the election were held today.

The Bloc is holding at 24% again, but now trails the Conservatives by 1% in Quebec, putting them back in third place in the province.

For the Liberals, it’s all the greatest hits - leading in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. They’ve managed to hold onto their 11-point lead in B.C., which is a bit surprising, but we’ll see if it holds for a third consecutive day. In Ontario, they’re ahead by 10 points, up by 15 in Quebec, and leading Atlantic Canada by a commanding 20 points.

Both Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre appeared on the widely watched show Tout Le Monde en Parle yesterday. Due to CRTC rules restricting calling on weekends, there would be no impact from that appearance reflected in today’s numbers.

If the episode does influence public opinion, we can expect any movement to start showing up in the coming days. Commentators would have us believe both men gave good performances.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.

As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.