National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 38%
April 1, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (+1) with the Conservatives once again at 38% (No Change).
The rolling survey, conducted from March 29 to March 31, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"It's no April Fool's joke—the Conservatives have now held steady at 38% for the third consecutive day," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Under normal circumstances, that might signal a path to a Conservative majority, but with the NDP and Bloc losing ground, the Liberals remain positioned as the likely winners if the election were held today."
"While the Conservatives have held their ground, the Liberals have climbed back to 44%, matching their highest level of support in our tracking survey."
"Yesterday, I noted that the NDP was losing a relatively strong day in the tracking. Last night’s numbers were decent, but not enough to prevent them from slipping back to 6%."
"Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois finds itself in a precarious position, sitting in third place in Quebec at 21%. The Liberals lead the province with 38%, followed by the Conservatives at 28%. At this level of support, the Bloc is in dangerous territory and risks losing the vast majority of its seats."
"Regionally, outside of Quebec, the landscape remains largely unchanged. The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia, while the Conservatives maintain their advantage in the Prairies and Alberta."
"There’s still a long road to Election Day. While some voters may have already cast their ballots at returning offices, the number remains extremely small. In other words, plenty can - and perhaps will - change over the next four weeks," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.