National Tracker: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 36%
March 29, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% with the Conservatives at 36%, an 8 point lead.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 26 to March 28, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"Another strong day for the Liberals sees them once again reaching 44% support," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "So far, 44% remains their ceiling in our daily tracking. Meanwhile, the Conservatives sit at 36%, widening the gap since yesterday."
"It’s been a challenging media environment for the Conservatives all week, with yesterday’s coverage dominated by the first phone call between Mr. Carney and President Trump."
"Regionally, the Liberals continue to perform well—though their support in Atlantic Canada has dipped slightly to 55%. In Ontario, their lead has expanded to 11 points, while in British Columbia, they now hold a 5-point advantage. In Quebec, yesterday’s second-place standing for the Conservatives has shifted, with them now narrowly back in third at 24%, as the Liberals lead at 39% and the Bloc Québécois follows at 26%."
"The NDP is seeing its second consecutive day of gains, rising from 7% yesterday to 8% today. The Greens have also inched up, increasing from 2% to 3%."
"Beyond yesterday’s coverage of Trump, several reports surfaced detailing internal conflicts within Conservative circles. Whether it’s The Star, Global News, CBC or The Globe and Mail, the common thread is clear—Conservatives are growing frustrated as their long-standing lead in the polls has given way to a fight from second place."
"A campaign reset might seem straightforward, but in practice, it's like trying to turn a plane mid-flight while still building it—a challenging and risky maneuver. The Poilievre camp has hinted at a messaging shift next week, but its impact remains uncertain, especially with early-week headlines set to focus on the April 2nd tariffs—Trump's so-called 'Liberation Day,'" concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.