National Tracker: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 38%
March 28, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals at 43% support, down one from yesterday's tracking while the Conservatives are up one to 38%.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 25 to March 27, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The Liberals are still cruising, but the race has tightened to a five-point gap," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "The Liberals, Conservatives, and yes—even the NDP—are all up one point, bringing the NDP to 7%."
"It's a bit unusual to call 7% an achievement for the NDP, but given where they've been, here we are."
"The Liberals maintain their regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are holding second place in Quebec at 26%, pushing the Bloc Québécois down to third at 23%. Whether this is just a blip or the start of a shift remains to be seen—we'll be watching closely."
"While each party has had its fluctuations, the overall trend is clear: the Liberals have gained ground in the early days of the campaign, likely benefiting from the spotlight on tariffs and the trade war. The Conservatives have remained relatively stable, with slight gains. Meanwhile, the NDP continues to struggle, steadily declining in the polls. Just a few months ago, the idea of them slipping to 5% or even 4% in daily tracking would have seemed unthinkable—but at this rate, it’s no longer out of the question."
"The media landscape remains tough for the opposition parties. There’s no simple fix to their dilemma—Mr. Carney isn’t just the Liberal leader; he’s also the sitting Prime Minister. That means even his non-campaign events carry the weight and visibility of campaign moments," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.