National Tracker: Liberals 39%, Conservatives 36
March 18, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows Mark Carney's Liberals leading by three points at 39%.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 15 to March 17, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The Liberals are holding just below the 40% mark in today's survey, while the Conservatives have gained one point but continue to lag in key regional battlegrounds. The Liberals have regained their lead in Quebec, now four points ahead of the Bloc Québécois, hold a narrow one-point edge in British Columbia, lead by six points in Ontario, and dominate Atlantic Canada with a 28-point advantage."
"If an election were held today with these numbers, it’s hard to see how the Liberals wouldn’t secure a majority government," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"While the Liberals remain strong, the NDP has slipped to just 10% support—grim numbers for the party who would be expected to lose most of its existing caucus."
"The Conservatives have spent the past two years aggressively campaigning against the carbon tax and Justin Trudeau— on that front they have been widely successful though perhaps to their own detriment ."
"However, just yesterday, they held another ‘Axe the Tax’ rally, raising questions about whether this message will still resonate now that the consumer carbon tax has been effectively scrapped."
"It's also important to remember that the election has yet to begin. The writ period presents an opportunity for Mr. Carney to make missteps and for the Conservatives to regain their lead. But the same applies in reverse—there’s plenty of time for Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives to stumble, allowing Mr. Carney to further strengthen his position at the expense of either the Conservatives or the NDP or both."
"The biggest wildcard remains the American President. What he says and does in the heat of the campaign could ultimately have the most significant impact of all," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally. Liaison has demonstrated accurate results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, was the most accurate polling firm of the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.