National Tracker: Liberal Lead Shrinks to 2 Points as NDP Climbs to 11%
March 21, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows the race narrowing to a 2 point lead between the Liberals and the Conservatives with the NDP ticking up to 11%.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 18 to March 20, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"Today's tracking shows a tight two-point race and serves as a reminder that the fortunes of the Liberals and Conservatives are closely tied to NDP support," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"The Liberals are down two points, while the NDP is up two. That doesn’t mean every voter shifted directly from the Liberals to the NDP—voters move in all directions. Some Liberals may have gone to Undecided, some Undecideds to the Conservatives, some Conservatives to the NDP, and so on. But the overall impact of a stronger NDP showing typically comes at the Liberals’ expense."
"That said, the Carney honeymoon continues. Maybe today marks the beginning of the end, or maybe this honeymoon lasts all the way to Election Day - only time will tell."
"Now’s a good time to talk about what happens when we see unusual regional numbers. Take the Greens in Alberta the other day—they showed up at 10% (they're at 5% today). It might seem like we should step in and adjust, but the reality is, we don’t touch the numbers at all. We publish as is. Why? Because regional outliers are normal, and it would actually be strange if we didn’t see any."
"A good example is Quebec. For several days, we've tracked a solid Liberal lead, but today’s numbers put the Liberals at 32% and the Bloc at 30%—statistically a tie given the margin of error. This could be the start of a new trend, or it could just be noise. Right now, we don’t know. But the only responsible approach is to trust the data, publish the numbers, and let trends reveal themselves over time. That’s exactly what we’re committed to doing."
"The trend is always more important than any one particular snapshot," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.