National Tracker: Federal Liberals Lead by 3 points

March 16, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows Mark Carney's Liberals leading by three points at 38%.

The rolling survey, conducted from March 13 to March 15, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"Expect some fluctuations in the daily tracking," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "What matters more than any single snapshot is the overall trend."

"That said, as we begin monitoring Mr. Carney's leadership of the Liberals, he’s delivering strong numbers—one of the key reasons a federal election is rumoured to be called as early as this week."

"Although their lead has dipped by one point since yesterday, the Liberals continue to show strong regional performance in Ontario and maintain a narrow lead in Quebec. They also remain ahead among older voters, the most consistent voting bloc," concluded Valentin.

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally. Liaison has demonstrated accurate results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, was the most accurate polling firm of the 2025 Ontario provincial election.

About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote and integrate economic, social and cultural interests of Ethnic communities into the mainstream of Canadian society. NEPMCC represents Canada’s Ethnic Press to the provincial and federal governments and is the major industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online outlets.