National Tracker: 2 Point Race Continues with Liberals at 38%, Conservatives at 36%
March 22, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows a stable race with the Liberals at 38% and the Conservatives at 36%.
The rolling survey, conducted from March 19 to March 21, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.
"The Liberals and Conservatives are holding steady at yesterday's numbers, while the NDP dips by one point to 10%," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.
"Regionally, we're seeing some shifts. The Liberals have regained their lead over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, now sitting at 33% to the Bloc’s 28%. More movement could be on the horizon, as a strong polling day for the Bloc is set to drop from the rolling average, potentially widening the Liberals' lead further."
"In Ontario, the Liberals maintain a six-point lead—not bad, but we've seen stronger margins in recent days. Meanwhile, in British Columbia, the race remains tight, with the Conservatives at 40% and the Liberals close behind at 38%, effectively a statistical tie."
"With the campaign kicking off tomorrow, it's a good time to reflect on what's changed since Mr. Carney took over as Liberal leader. The Conservative vote has fluctuated within a tight two-point range, hitting a low of 34% and a high of 36%—a remarkably steady performance.
"The Liberals have shown slightly more movement, ranging from 37% to 40%, but crucially, they've led every single day in the rolling survey. If they can maintain that momentum for the next 36 days, that’s game over."
"The campaign kicks off tomorrow, and if there’s one thing to expect, it’s the unexpected. With debates on the horizon, our focus will be on the French-language debate in particular," concluded Valentin.
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm with over a decade of experience in Canadian polling. Led by Principal David Valentin, who has conducted hundreds of municipal, provincial, and federal projects, Liaison has built a strong reputation for delivering accurate insights. Valentin is a frequent media commentator on public opinion trends.
As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), the leading voice of the research, analytics, and insights industry in Canada and beyond, Liaison upholds the highest standards in polling. The firm has a proven track record of accuracy, with strong results in British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and most recently, as the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario provincial election.
About the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada
The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the economic, social, and cultural interests of ethnic communities within Canadian society. As the leading industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online media, NEPMCC serves as the voice of ethnic press, representing their interests at both the provincial and federal levels.