Mississauga: Trudeau Leads, Dead Heat Provincially

January 18, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Justin Trudeau's Liberals leading in the City of Mississauga.

Conducted from January 10-11, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 983 Mississauga voters (screened for voting eligibility). The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.06%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Insights Research Council (CRIC). This is the second part of Liaison's January Mississauga Survey.

"Justin Trudeau is facing grim national numbers, and our January survey in Toronto found the Liberals would lose seats in a major stronghold. So it's unexpected and a bit surprising to find the Liberals leading in Mississauga but they are 5 points ahead of the Conservatives, 41% to 36%," said David Valentin, Principal of Liaison Strategies.

"That's a drop of 9 points from the past federal election when the Federal Liberals collected 50% of the vote in Mississauga."

"For context, 64% of respondents in this survey told us Canada was moving in the wrong direction and 65% of them have an unfavourable view of Justin Trudeau - but 41% are voting for the federal Liberal Party regardless."

Federal Voting Intentions (Decided & Leaning):
Liberal Party of Canada - 41%
Conservative Party of Canada -36%
NDP - 13%Greens - 4%
People's Party of Canada - 3%

"Provincially we are seeing a different situation altogether. Doug Ford and Bonnie Crombie are incredibly well known among Mississaugans - 0% said they were not familiar with them, but despite Crombie being significantly more popular than Ford the two parties are deadlocked at 40% each."

"That's a drop of 4% for the Ontario PCs from the last election and a gain of 4% for the Ontario Liberals from the last election."

"Interestingly, among all voters, the undecided rate provincially (17%) is significantly higher than in Toronto (11%). So Crombie's elevation to leader of the Ontario Liberals has likely pushed a lot of voters into the undecided column. It remains to be seen whether she can convert them all into Ontario Liberal supporters, but there is a lot of time before the next provincial election. At the same time, the Ford PCs may be able to bring those undecided voters back into the fold."

Provincial Voting Intentions (Decided & Leaning):
Ontario PC - 40%
Ontario Liberal - 40%
ONDP - 13%
Ontario Greens - 4%
Other - 3%

Favourability Ratings for Federal & Provincial Leaders:
(Favourable - Unfavourable)

Justin Trudeau -34
Pierre Poilievre +5
Jagmeet Singh +18
Elizabeth May +16
Doug Ford -16
Marit Stiles +7
Bonnie Crombie +32
Mike Schreiner +16

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Read the report: