Liberals Lead by 1 in Bay of Quinte, a statistical tie

September 11, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison poll commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Ontario PCs by one point in Bay of Quinte - within the margin of error and a statistical tie.

The by election will take place September 19th, 2024.

Conducted from September 8-9, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the Bay of Quinte poll surveyed 541 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.21, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC). Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Bay of Quinte Decided & Leaning:
36% - Sean Kelly (Ontario Liberal)
35% - Tyler Allsopp (PC)
18% - Amanda Robertson (Ontario NDP)
5% - Lori Bothwick (Ontario Greens)
6% - Other

"Unlike other vacancies, the by election in Bay of Quinte was called suddenly with little to no time for parties, aside from the PCs, given time to prepare. The race is now unexpectedly competitive as the Liberals benefit from running a well known city councillor and local radio personality," said David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies.

"Sean Kelly, the Liberal candidate, and Todd Smith, the former MPP, were both Belleville radio broadcasters - so perhaps there is something in the airwaves."

"The Liberals and PCs are now effectively tied. Ontario Liberal vote is up significantly from the last election from 18% to 36%. The Ontario NDP, which were in second place in 2022 with 21% are third in our survey with 18%. Meanwhile, the PC vote is down from 49% to 35% putting them in second place."

"With the Liberals and PCs tied, either party could be successful and it will come down to ground organization and motivating voters in a low turnout environment."

"If the Ontario Liberals win in Bay of Quinte it will definitely be an upset no one anticipated. Interestingly, with all the talk of an early election in the news lately, it will be Bay of Quinte voters who will be first to cast judgement."

"A loss in Bay of Quinte could give the PCs pause about an early call. One thing we know for sure: once you call an election - or a by election, no result is ever truly certain," concluded Valentin.

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