Ford Expands Lead as Trade War Begins

February 3, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Doug Ford doubling his lead as a trade war begins with the United States.

The survey, conducted January 31 to February 1, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, polled 1,274 Ontario voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.74%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

“Following the explosive announcement from President Donald Trump of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Doug Ford has doubled his 6-point lead into a 12-point lead over the Ontario Liberals,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

“Ford focused his campaign on tariffs and the trade war from the very start and, for now, that is paying dividends with Ontarians.”

“For the Ontario Liberals there are two bright spots: they still lead in the City of Toronto, and they are tied at 33% with the PCs in the north. There is no good news in this report for the Ontario NDP who continue to slide and are now down to 16%. In South Central Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara, they are trailing the PCs by 13 points despite the fact they have been first or a close second all throughout the year.”

“How the numbers, top line and regional, translate into seats can be complicated at the best of times but if Ontario NDP support continues to bleed there are very few seats that they’ll be able to hold onto. In Toronto, that dynamic could see the PCs come up the middle like they did in 2022 in York South Weston.”

“A sizeable number of Ontarians, 23%, are still undecided. That’s down only 3 points from two weeks ago. What voter turnout will be – and how that will impact results, remains a mystery especially with the number of advance voting days cut from 10 days to 3.”

“There is still lots of campaigning to go, including the debate, but for now Doug Ford remains in the driver’s seat as Ontarians attention shifts squarely onto tariffs, retaliatory measures and the economy,” concluded Valentin.

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 43% (+4)
Ontario Liberal 31% (-2)
Ontario NDP 16% (-2)
Ontario Greens 5% (No change)
Other 5% (No change)

-30-

For more information: