Federal Tracker: Liberals Post 7-Point Lead; Carney Approval at 62%
February 9, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberal Party of Canada holding a seven-point advantage over the Conservative Party of Canada. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives’ 35%, with the New Democratic Party at 9%, and the Bloc Québécois at 7%.
At the same time, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval remains elevated at 62%, while 53% of Canadians hold an unfavourable view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (39% favourable).
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from January 26 to February, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The topline is steady: the Liberals are still out front, and the Conservative vote continues to look capped in the mid-30s among decided voters. The real question right now is whether anything breaks this pattern, or whether we’re settling into a new normal for early 2026."
"Ontario remains key to the Liberal lead, where the party is at 47% to 35% among decided voters. "
"Carney’s personal numbers remain a significant asset. Approval is 62% nationally and strongest among older Canadians, while Poilievre’s image continues to be holding the Conservatives back.”
“If you’re the Conservatives, the path is obvious but it’s not simple: you can’t win a national contest by running up the score in the Prairies and Alberta alone. Those numbers are huge, but they’re already baked in. The fight is in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. and right now, the Liberals are still ahead in each of them.”
“The NDP remains in single digits nationally at 9%. That’s a meaningful constraint on how much volatility we should expect in the short term, because there just aren’t many voters moving between the smaller parties and the two main ones right now.”
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.