Federal Tracker: Liberals Maintain Double-Digit Lead

April 6, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Stratégies shows the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, maintaining a commanding 11-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives as the spring political season intensifies.

The survey finds the Liberals with 44% (-1) support, followed by the Conservatives at 33% (no change) and the NDP at 9% (no change).

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from March 23 to April 4, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals continue to hold a significant advantage across most of the country, driven by strong numbers in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. While the Conservatives remain the preferred choice for younger voters and in the Prairies, they have yet to close the gap in the central Canadian battlegrounds necessary to overtake the Liberal lead.”

"This week, the Conservatives are holding steady at 33%. The Liberals still lead, but they’ve now posted three consecutive weeks of decline, slipping one point each week. Whether they rebound or continue to trend downward remains to be seen."

Regional Highlights (Decided and Leaning Voters)

• Ontario Stronghold: The Liberals have opened a significant 17-point lead in Ontario, sitting at 51% compared to 34% for the Conservatives.
• Quebec and B.C.: The Liberals lead in Quebec with 39% (ahead of the BQ at 28% and Conservatives at 20%) and in British Columbia with 43% (ahead of the Conservatives at 35%).
• Conservative Strengths: The Conservative Party remains dominant in Alberta with 46% support and holds a narrow lead among voters aged 18–34 (39% to the Liberals’ 38%).
• Gender Gap: Liberals lead among both female voters (47%) and male voters (41%), while the Conservatives find their highest support among men (36%).

"This also marks the third consecutive week of decline in the Prime Minister’s approval rating, slipping from 64% to 61%, still strong numbers by any measure. Notably, his disapproval hasn’t risen alongside it; instead, more respondents are now saying they’re unsure."

"A similar pattern is playing out for Pierre Poilievre. His unfavourables have dropped from 57% in January to 50% today, but rather than translating into higher favourables, most of that shift is showing up in a growing share of Canadians who are unsure about his performance."

"Lastly, Avi Lewis continues to show the most movement with the number of Canadians not familiar with him dropping a further 5 points in one week."

"Lewis is strongest in Quebec, where he posts a 29% favourable against just 8% unfavourable, with Ontario also relatively competitive at 25% favourable and 21% unfavourable. Elsewhere, the picture is more mixed: he struggles most in Alberta (10% favourable vs. 27% unfavourable), while in B.C. and the Prairies his numbers are softer and held back by low visibility, and Atlantic Canada is essentially split."

"The consistent story across every region is how many voters still don’t know him ranging from about a third in Ontario to nearly half in B.C., which means there’s still a lot of room for these numbers to move as he becomes better known."

Detailed Poll Report:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.