Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 8 as Conservatives Gain Ground
The Liberals lead the Conservatives 42% to 34%, while Mark Carney approval rises to 58% and Pierre Poilievre slips back after last week's tracker high.
June 29, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding an 8-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 42%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 13%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%.
The Green Party and People's Party are each at 2%, while Other parties are at 1%. Among all voters, the Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives are at 30%, the NDP is at 11%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens are at 2%, the PPC and Other parties are at 1% each, and 14% are undecided.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from June 14 to June 27, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The Liberal lead has narrowed from 11 points to 8 points. The Liberals are down 1 point to 42%, while the Conservatives are up 2 points to 34%. The NDP is down 1 point to 13%, and the Bloc is unchanged at 6%."
"That is not a collapse in Liberal support, but it is a tightening. The Conservatives are back to 34%, their best result since May 18, while the Liberals remain above 40% among decided and leaning voters."
"Carney's approval is up 1 point to 58%, while disapproval is unchanged at 36%. That puts him at a net positive of 22 points. He is not back to his early-year highs, but the slide we saw earlier in June has clearly stopped for now."
"Poilievre's numbers moved in the other direction. His favourable rating is down 2 points to 37%, while his unfavourable rating is up 3 points to 50%. Last week was his best standing in our tracker. This week, some of that improvement has come back off."
"The important thing is that the Conservative vote did improve even as Poilievre's personal numbers worsened. That suggests this week's Conservative gain is more about the ballot environment than a personal breakthrough for Poilievre."
"Avi Lewis is holding at 28% favourable, which ties his tracker high, but his unfavourable rating is also up 1 point to 26%, the highest we have recorded for him. He is becoming more defined, and that definition is moving in both directions."
"British Columbia continues to be the most interesting region for Lewis and the NDP. Lewis is at 51% favourable in BC, and the NDP is at 23% among decided and leaning voters there. The Liberals still lead in BC at 39%, followed by the Conservatives at 33%, but the NDP is much more competitive there than it is nationally."
"Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. Ontario remains a key Liberal strength, with the Liberals at 46% and the Conservatives at 37% among decided and leaning voters."
"The age split is also worth watching. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives are at 28%, and the NDP is at 22%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 52% to 33%. The Liberals are still anchored by older voters, but they are also ahead with younger voters this week."
"For now, the Liberals are still ahead nationally, Carney's approval has edged up, and the Conservatives have gained ground. The question is whether this is a one-week tightening or the beginning of a more durable Conservative recovery."
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.